My 2024 Oscar Predictions

By John Corrado

Oscar weekend is here again, which means that it’s time to carry on my annual tradition of trying to predict the winners. This seems like a pretty easy year to predict with Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer set to sweep the major categories including Best Picture (I personally have it winning eight of its thirteen nominations), but there are still some races like Best Actress that feel a lot closer.

The 96th Academy Awards air tomorrow night at 7pm (EST) on ABC. My predictions in all 23 categories along with some commentary on a few of the tighter races is below. Remember, no matter what happens tomorrow night, this is all in good fun.

Best Picture:

This has become one of the most straight-forward Best Picture races in recent history, and for good reason. Christopher Nolan managed to turn Oppenheimer – a talky, three-hour biopic – into one of the biggest critical and box office hits of the year, and the Academy will follow suit in awarding it Best Picture. While fellow nominees Past Lives and The Holdovers might have been my personal favourite movies of the year, there’s little denying that Oppenheimer was the cinematic achievement of last year, on so many levels. It deserves the win.

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Personal Pick: Oppenheimer

Best Director:

All the reasons I listed above for picking Oppenheimer in Picture, hold true for Nolan winning Best Director. He’s indisputably one of our finest filmmakers, the mastermind of this grand vision, and has never won before. It’s his time.

Predicted Winner: Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer

Personal Pick: Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer

Best Actor:

This race is a lot tougher, only because I still think there is some leeway for Paul Giamatti (who was famously snubbed for Alexander Payne’s Sideways twenty years ago) to win for The Holdovers. But Cillian Murphy has the edge for his fascinating, nuanced portrayal of J. Robert Oppenheimer, which anchors Nolan’s presumptive Best Picture winner.

Predicted Winner: Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

Personal Pick: Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer

Best Actress:

This is probably the toughest race of the night in terms of the big categories; do they go with Lily Gladstone for her heartbreaking work in Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon (potentially the only win for the film with ten nominations) or Emma Stone’s fearless performance in Poor Things? Will they go with Gladstone, who has the narrative behind her, or Stone, a previous winner for La La Land? I’m giving the edge to Stone, but wouldn’t be surprised (or unhappy) if Gladstone wins.

Predicted Winner: Emma Stone – Poor Things

Personal Pick: Emma Stone – Poor Things

Best Supporting Actor:

Like with most of the categories where I’m predicting Oppenheimer to win, Robert Downey Jr. is a lock for his supporting work in the film. For Ryan Gosling as Ken, it’s an honour just to be nominated, even if it means he’s always number two…

Predicted Winner: Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer

Personal Pick: Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer

Best Supporting Actress:

This is the biggest lock of the night. Da’Vine Joy Randolph has done a clean sweep of the season for her sublime work in The Holdovers, and anyone else winning at this point would be a massive upset.

Predicted Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

Personal Pick: Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

Best Original Screenplay:

If France had selected Palme d’Or winner Anatomy of a Fall for International Feature, there’s a chance it would have dominated that category. In lieu of being able to give it that award, I’m predicting the Best Picture nominee will win here instead for its exceptionally knotty, thought-provoking screenplay.

Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall – Justine Triet and Arthur Harari

Personal Pick: The Holdovers – David Hemingson

Best Adapted Screenplay:

It almost feels like a no-brainer to say that Oppenheimer will win this award as well and add to its tally (and it still could), and Barbie at one point seemed like a screenplay frontrunner. But I have a strong feeling this one goes to Cord Jefferson’s sharply written satire American Fiction, which is about a writer, to boot.

Predicted Winner: American Fiction – Cord Jefferson

Personal Pick: American Fiction – Cord Jefferson

Best Animated Feature:

This is down to Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Hayao Miyazaki’s The Boy and the Heron. The first Spider-Verse movie won this award, and the sequel is even more of a groundbreaking visual achievement. But Miyazaki’s dreamlike film feels like a swan song for the celebrated animation master (even if it doesn’t end up being his final film), so I’m predicting it to have the edge. But it’s close.

Predicted Winner: The Boy and the Heron

Personal Pick: The Boy and the Heron

Best Documentary Feature:

Predicted Winner: 20 Days in Mariupol

Personal Pick: The Eternal Memory

Best International Feature Film:

Predicted Winner: The Zone of Interest

Personal Pick: The Zone of Interest

Best Cinematography:

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer – Hoyte van Hoytema

Personal Pick: Oppenheimer – Hoyte van Hoytema

Best Costume Design:

Predicted Winner: Barbie

Personal Pick: Barbie

Best Film Editing:

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Personal Pick: Oppenheimer

Best Make-Up & Hairstyling:

Predicted Winner: Maestro

Personal Pick: Maestro

Best Production Design:

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Personal Pick: Poor Things

Best Original Score:

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer – Ludwig Göranson

Personal Pick: Oppenheimer – Ludwig Göranson

Best Original Song:

Predicted Winner: Barbie – “What Was I Made For?”

Personal Pick: Barbie – “What Was I Made For?”

Best Sound:

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Personal Pick: Oppenheimer

Best Visual Effects:

This has low-key become one of the tightest below the line races, with none of the nominees included in the Best Picture lineup. I feel like this is down to sci-fi action flick The Creator and Japanese monster movie Godzilla Minus One, both films that did highly impressive work on limited budgets. I’m going with international hit Godzilla Minus One.

Predicted Winner: Godzilla Minus One

Personal Pick: Godzilla Minus One

Best Animated Short Film: