My 2025 Oscar Predictions

By John Corrado

It’s Oscar weekend, which means that it’s time for my final predictions. Some of these are off the cuff choices, while others are more thought out based on precursors and my own analysis. As always, I’ve provided commentary on some of the categories, and my own personal choices if I had a ballot.

Best Picture:

At one point, it looked like this might go to The Brutalist. But this has turned into a tight race between Anora and Conclave. There are arguments to be made for either one; Anora won PGA, DGA and Critic’s Choice, while Conclave won BAFTA and SAG. I’m still predicting Palme d’Or winner Anora to have the passion behind it to win. But Conclave is a skillfully crafted papal thriller that wouldn’t feel like too much of an upset if it won. This is a coin flip, and I’ve landed on Anora.

Predicted Winner: Anora

Personal Pick: Anora or The Brutalist

Best Director:

This is a race between Brady Corbet and Sean Baker. Corbet would be a very worthy winner for the sheer cinematic achievement that is The Brutalist, and if his film was winning Picture, he would go along with it. But it’s beginning to feel like Baker’s time, for the clout he has built up over the past decade as one of America’s defining modern filmmakers. If I’ve got Anora winning Picture, I believe Baker should go along with it.

Predicted Winner: Sean Baker – Anora

Personal Pick: Sean Baker or Brady Corbet

Best Actress:

This is another tossup. It’s between Demi Moore and Mikey Madison; the seasoned veteran going after a career award versus the young ingenue in her breakout role. I’m leaning towards predicting Moore, who has won several televised awards and given memorable speeches, despite her being in a genre film. But I wouldn’t be at all shocked if Madison comes out on top, especially if Anora is winning Best Picture.

Predicted Winner: Demi Moore – The Substance

Personal Pick: Mikey Madison – Anora

Best Actor:

There’s a case to be made for predicting Timothée Chalamet, who won the SAG Award just last week. But I’m sticking with Adrien Brody to win his second Oscar over two decades after The Pianist, and the fact that he has swept much of the season for his staggering performance makes me feel like that’s a safe enough pick. Chalamet is great, but I can see the Academy waiting to award him in the future.

Predicted Winner: Adrien Brody – The Brutalist

Personal Pick: Adrien Brody – The Brutalist

Best Supporting Actress:

Despite the controversies around Emilia Pérez (mainly due to resurfaced tweets from lead actress Karla Sofía Gascón), Zoe Saldaña is too much of a frontrunner to lose. She’s won everywhere she needs to leading up to this, and is highly respected within the industry. This is hers for the taking.

Predicted Winner: Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez

Personal Pick: Felicity Jones – The Brutalist

Best Supporting Actor:

Like Saldaña, Kieran Culkin has won everywhere he needs to in the lead up to this. He will win here as well for his knockout supporting performance in Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain.

Predicted Winner: Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain

Personal Pick: Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain

Best Original Screenplay:

Conventional wisdom would say that Sean Baker wins this for Anora. But I’m predicting that Jesse Eisenberg will upset for A Real Pain. They are awarding his co-star Culkin, and this will be a way to reward Eisenberg as well for one of the best written films of last year. Eisenberg’s script enhances the performances, and vice versa. The only question is why A Real Pain didn’t make it into Best Picture?

Predicted Winner: Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain

Personal Pick: Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain

Best Adapted Screenplay:

If Conclave is closely contending for Best Picture, it’s pretty much a lock to win here. Aside from the incredible performances, the film’s dialogue and writing is the other thing that really stands out.

Predicted Winner: Peter Straughan – Conclave

Personal Pick: Peter Straughan – Conclave

Best Animated Feature:

Another tight race, this time between Flow and The Wild Robot. DreamWorks’ Wild Robot got sound and score nominations as well that suggest real strength, and it would be a highly deserving winner. But then you’ve got indie success story Flow as the underdog. I won’t be shocked at all if the former wins, but I’m beginning to feel like they will award the undeniably impressive artistic achievement of Flow, which is also nominated for International Feature. Either way, this is one of the strongest lineups maybe ever in this category.

Predicted Winner: Flow

Personal Pick: Inside Out 2

Best International Feature Film:

This has turned into a tight race between Emilia Pérez and I’m Still Here. The question is if the controversy has dampened Netflix’s Emilia Pérez, which leads with thirteen nominations, and for the longest time seemed to be the undisputed frontrunner. But Brazil’s I’m Still Here has passion behind it (enough to get it into the Best Picture lineup as well), and might be peaking at the right time. I’m still sticking with Emilia Pérez winning, but wouldn’t be shocked at all if I’m Still Here pulls ahead.

Predicted Winner: Emilia Pérez

Personal Pick: The Seed of the Sacred Fig