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My 2023 Oscar Predictions

March 11, 2023

By John Corrado

It’s Oscar weekend, which means that it’s time for my final predictions for what will take home this year’s awards. While some of the big categories (Picture, Director) seem easy, there are a lot of hard to predict races. I have very little confidence in some of these predictions, and you know what? I’m okay with that, since it makes for a more fun viewing experience.

Will Everything Everywhere All at Once, with its leading eleven nominations, pull off a clean sweep, or collect a more modest haul on its way to almost certainly winning Best Picture at the end of the night? Is it really possible for Top Gun: Maverick to go home empty-handed, as some are predicting? How much love will Elvis or All Quiet on the Western Front get in the tech categories? I’ve included some additional commentary below trying to explaining my choices.

Best Picture:

It seems like one of the biggest sure things at this point that Everything Everywhere All At Once will actually win the Oscar for Best Picture. It’s almost hard to believe how the film has gone from entering the season seeming like an underdog with an outside chance of winning, but has quickly risen to be the unstoppable frontrunner. I like the movie a lot, and it will certainly be one of the most unique Best Picture winners. In second place seems to be Netflix All Quiet on the Western Front, a remake of a previous Best Picture winner, but I don’t know if it has enough momentum to actually pull off an upset (despite sweeping at the BAFTAs).

Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Personal Pick: The Fabelmans

Best Director:

At one point, it seemed like the natural thing to do here would be to give Steven Spielberg his third directing Oscar for his deeply personal, beautifully crafted exploration of his childhood (and I still would do that). But, as EEAAO picked up steam as the Best Picture frontrunner, its directing duo The Daniels has gone along with it, and are now just as much of a sure thing to win.

Predicted Winner: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Personal Pick: Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans

Best Actress:

This is one of the tightest two-horse races of the night between Blanchett and Yeoh, with pros and cons to each (Blanchett won BAFTA, but Yeoh won SAG). Yeoh has the narrative on her side, and she would be a worthy winner along with EEAAO, but Oscars have shown they don’t always care about that in the past. Blanchett delivered a towering performance as Lydia Tár that would be equally deserving of a win, and I have a feeling the Academy will be fine with making her a three-time Oscar-winner for it.

Predicted Winner: Cate Blanchett – TÁR

Personal Pick: Cate Blanchett – TÁR

Best Actor:

Like Actress, this is another close two-horse race between Fraser and Butler (initially a three-horse one when Farrell seemed like more of a contender). I’m still predicting (and hoping) that Fraser will be able to ride a tidal wave of goodwill towards his first Oscar, but it’s not an easy path. As I said before, the Academy has shown that they don’t always care about narrative; they famously (and wrongly) awarded Sean Penn for Milk over Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler (another powerful comeback performance in a Darren Aronofsky film), and Eddie Redmayne won for playing Stephen Hawking over Michael Keaton in Birdman. If that trend of awarding biopics continues, Butler will win for Elvis, and I can’t complain; he’s incredible as The King. But I’m still giving Fraser the edge for The Whale.

Predicted Winner: Brendan Fraser – The Whale

Personal Pick: Brendan Fraser – The Whale

​Best Supporting Actress:

Another tight race, this time between Bassett, Curtis and Condon. Bassett initially seemed like the frontrunner, but I’ve always have a hard time seeing them awarding a performance in a Marvel movie, and it’s also possible that industry veterans Bassett and Curtis cancelled each other out in voting, with Condon coming up the middle. But Curtis had enough passion behind her to even get a nomination, and she’s a well-respected titan of the industry who did a lot to help push EEAAO as an awards contender, so I’m predicting her surprise SAG win will translate here as well.

Predicted Winner: Jamie Lee Curtis – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Personal Pick: Hong Chau – The Whale

Best Supporting Actor:

This is an easy one, with Quan maybe the biggest lock of the night to win. And you know what? He fully deserves it. Sure, Keoghan pulled off a surprise BAFTA win, but I don’t see that happening here.

Predicted Winner: Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Personal Pick: Ke Huy Quan – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Best Original Screenplay:

Will Martin McDonagh really lose another chance at a screenplay win, like he did with Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri? I’m predicting The Daniels to pick up this trophy for EEAAO, but would love to see McDonagh’s masterfully written Banshees prevail.

Predicted Winner: Everything Everywhere All At Once

Personal PickThe Banshees of Inisherin

Best Adapted Screenplay:

This is between All Quiet and Women Talking. It’s a tossup which one will prevail, but I’m tentatively giving the edge to Toronto’s own Sarah Polley for the former. A lot of people want to see her win, and it’s a movie where the writing stands out in particular. Though my heart goes with novelist Kazuo Ishiguro for Ikiru remake Living.

Predicted Winner: Women Talking

Personal Pick: Living

Best Animated Feature:

I adore four out of five of these movies and thought the fifth one (The Sea Beast) was good. Del Toro will win for his Pinocchio, and he deserves to. Though, by a hair, my heart still belongs to Pixar’s Toronto-set Turning Red.

Predicted Winner: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Personal Pick: Turning Red

Best Documentary Feature:

The only one of these I haven’t seen yet is A House Made of Splinters, but the other four all made my own list for the best documentaries of last year. I’m giving the edge to the archival footage love story Fire of Love, though the topical real life thriller Navalny is literally right behind it. Damn fine films, all of them, though All the Beauty and the Bloodshed is the best of the bunch, and it’s a shame it’s not more of a frontrunner.

Predicted Winner: Fire of Love

Personal Pick: All the Beauty And the Bloodshed

Best International Feature:

Predicted Winner: ​All Quiet on the Western Front

Personal Pick: ​All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Cinematography:

Predicted Winner: ​All Quiet on the Western Front

Personal Pick: ​All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Costume Design:

Catherine Martin won double Oscars for costumes and production design for two of Baz Luhrmann’s previous films, Moulin Rouge! and The Great Gatsby, so I’m making a safe bet that she at least wins this one for Elvis. Though watch out for EEAAO or Black Panther (the first film won) as possible spoilers.

Predicted Winner: Elvis

Personal Pick: Elvis

Best Film Editing:

A lot of people have switched to the multiverse-jumping EEAAO in this category, though I’m defiantly sticking to Top Gun: Maverick (which I’m also predicting for sound, and these two categories usually go hand-in-hand). Ford v. Ferrari also won this category in the year of Parasite, so there is precedent for them picking something like Top Gun over the Best Picture frontrunner.

Predicted Winner: Top Gun: Maverick

Personal Pick: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

Predicted Winner: Elvis

Personal Pick: The Whale

Best Production Design:

I’ve got Elvis winning Costume Design, so I’m going the easy route and predicting Catherine Martin to do another one-two punch with Production Design as well. Though it’s a literal toss-up with Babylon.

Predicted Winner: Elvis

Personal Pick: All Quiet on the Western Front

Best Sound:

War films tend to do well in this category, which could give All Quiet an advantage, but since I’m sticking to Maverick in Editing and these two awards usually go together, that’s what I’m going with. I’m also struggling to imagine a scenario where Maverick goes home empty-handed, so predicting it to win here at least for the roar of jet engines.

Predicted Winner: Top Gun: Maverick

Personal Pick: Top Gun: Maverick

Best Visual Effects:

The first Avatar won, and for the sequel to repeat seems like one of the biggest locks of the night.

Predicted Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water

Personal Pick: Avatar: The Way of Water

Best Original Score:

This has weirdly become one of the toughest categories to predict, but I’m thinking it’s down to All Quiet and Babylon. Both would be deserving, but I’m giving the edge to Justin Hurwitz for Babylon, partially because it’s a technical marvel and my personal favourite of the bunch (I’ve had it on repeat for months), and it will never leave your head in the best possible way. But is EEAAO a potential spoiler, or can John Williams win another Oscar? We shall see.

Predicted Winner: Babylon – Justin Hurwitz

Personal Pick: Babylon – Justin Hurwitz

Best Original Song:

Predicted Winner: “Naatu Naatu” – RRR

Personal Pick: “Hold My Hand” – Top Gun: Maverick

Best Animated Short:

Predicted Winner: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse

Personal Pick: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and the Horse

Best Documentary Short:

Predicted Winner: Stranger at the Gate

Personal Pick: Haulout

Best Live Action Short:

Predicted Winner: An Irish Goodbye

Personal Pick: N/A

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