My 2022 Oscar Predictions

March 26, 2022

By John Corrado

The 94th Academy Awards are this weekend, which means it’s time for my annual predictions in all 23 categories. I’m not super confident in some of these, least of which the suddenly very competitive Best Picture race between CODA and The Power of the Dog, so we’ll see how I do tomorrow night!

Best Picture:

This initially seemed like a race between Belfast and The Power of the Dog, but that all changed in the last few weeks when “little film that could” CODA came up from behind to win at the SAGs and PGAs, cementing itself as a formidable Best Picture contender. The race is now firmly between The Power of the Dog and CODA, with advantages and disadvantages to predicting either one. The former leads the pack with twelve nominations and is a lock for Best Director, while the latter only has three and no technical support. But, despite being the weaker of the two, CODA has momentum and a lot of passion on its side. So I’m tentatively going with that, but will be very happy if Power pulls it off.

Predicted Winner: CODA

Personal Pick: The Power of the Dog

Best Director:

This is the biggest lock of the night. Jane Campion is the first female director to be nominated twice, and she will become the third to win. And deservedly so.

Predicted Winner: Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

Personal Pick: Jane Campion – The Power of the Dog

Best Actor:

The narrative for Will Smith to win his first Oscar for King Richard has been set since before anyone even laid eyes on the film, leading me to question if it was manufactured or a real phenomenon. I think Benedict Cumberbatch and Andrew Garfield gave much stronger performances this year, and it would be a toss-up which one would get my personal vote. But the wind still seems to be in Smith’s sails, so I’m sticking with him for the prediction, but would love an upset.

Predicted Winner: Will Smith – King Richard

Personal Pick: Andrew Garfield – tick, tick…BOOM! -or- Benedict Cumberbatch – The Power of the Dog

Best Actress:

This is one of the most wide open races. We have a field made up of five performances, none of which are in films nominated for Best Picture. After a lot of back and forth, I think early favourite Jessica Chastain has regained the edge. But, from the buzz I’m hearing, watch out for Penelope Cruz as a possible dark horse spoiler. My heart is still with Kristen Stewart, of course, but she is too much of a long shot for me to confidently predict her.

Predicted Winner: Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Personal Pick: Kristen Stewart – Spencer

Best Supporting Actor:

Along with the rise of CODA, Troy Kotsur has emerged as the clear favourite in the last few weeks, and will be the first Deaf actor to win. But my allegiances still lie with early favourite Kodi Smitt-McPhee’s masterful performance as a young man turning the tables on his mother’s abuser.

Predicted Winner: Troy Kotsur – CODA

Personal Pick: Kodi Smitt-McPhee – The Power of the Dog

Best Supporting Actress:

Ariana DeBose seems to be the second biggest Oscar lock after Director, to the degree that this race has actually gotten kinda boring. My personal pick would be Kirsten Dunst, and if she somehow manages to surprise here it would be the upset of the night.

Predicted Winner: Ariana DeBose – West Side Story

Personal Pick: Kirsten Dunst – The Power of the Dog

Best Original Screenplay:

I have no real problem with Kenneth Branagh winning this for one time Best Picture favourite Belfast, and I’m predicting he will (though don’t count out Licorice Pizza, and Don’t Look Up is a dark horse contender). But I would love to see The Worst Person in the World win for its incredibly memorable writing.

Predicted Winner: Belfast – Kenneth Branagh

Personal Pick: The Worst Person in the World – Joachim Trier & Eskil Vogt

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Like Best Picture, this is between CODA and The Power of the Dog, with the former recently gaining the edge. I would personally love for Drive My Car to win, though.

Predicted Winner: CODA – Sian Heder

Personal Pick: Drive My Car – Ryusuke Hamaguchi & Takamasa Oe

Best Animated Feature:

Predicted Winner: Encanto

Personal Pick: Luca

Best Documentary Feature:

Predicted Winner: Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)

Personal Pick: Flee

Best International Feature:

Predicted Winner: Drive My Car (Japan)

Personal Pick: Drive My Car (Japan)

Best Cinematography:

I am not very confidently switching my prediction here from Dune to The Power of the Dog. Mainly because I have CODA winning Picture, Adapted Screenplay and Supporting Actor, and I can’t imagine Power with twelve noms only winning Director, and I don’t really know what else it could win.

Predicted Winner: The Power of the Dog – Ari Wegner

Personal Pick: The Power of the Dog – Ari Wegner

Best Film Editing: