My 2019 Oscar Predictions (Now Updated With Winners)
By John Corrado
So that’s a wrap on the 91st Academy Awards. I ended up predicting 17 of the 24 categories correctly, which isn’t as much as I had hoped, but is still one better than I got last year. The night ultimately ended with Green Book winning Best Picture over my prediction and preference Roma, which still managed to win Alfonso Cuarón a trio of much deserved trophies for Best Director, Best Cinematography and Best Foreign Language Film, the first time that award has ever gone to a film from Mexico.
I really did like Green Book, which also won the People’s Choice Award at TIFF, but I was hoping that Roma was going to come out on top tonight, as it’s the better overall movie. I’m guessing this has a lot to do with the Academy not wanting to give Best Picture to a Netflix film. While I think Green Book is a perfectly good movie, one of the biggest problems with it taking home the top prize is that it’s now going to be met with an even bigger amount of backlash than it already has, and the amount of scrutiny it will face is going to be even greater than if it hadn’t won Best Picture, which is unfortunate.
There were a few other surprises as well. Olivia Colman pulled off a Best Actress win for The Favourite, which I’m delighted about, even if it means that Glenn Close, who I was predicting would finally win on her seventh nomination, still doesn’t have an Oscar. The other acting awards went to Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk, Mahershala Ali for Green Book, and Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody. In the most shocking turn of events, the divisive crowdpleaser Bohemian Rhapsody actually turned out to be the biggest winner of the night, taking home four of its five nominations, despite the fact that it was at least partially directed by sexual predator Bryan Singer.
I don’t really have much more to say than what I’ve already said, but I will add that the show actually went really smoothly without a host this year. There was no mediocre opening monologue or cheesy skits to drag things down. It felt way more streamlined, and more importantly they were able to present all of the 24 categories live on-air while still saving time, as opposed to the Academy’s hair-brained idea of a few weeks ago to give out four of the awards during commercial breaks.
Bradley Cooper and Lady Gaga’s performance of the Best Song winner “Shallow” was also everything that I needed it to be, and the chemistry between them was real. Below are my full predictions for what I thought was going to win from earlier in the day, including my brief thoughts on most of the categories, now updated to include the actual winners.
Best Picture:
This is one of the tightest Best Picture races in recent memory. There are cases to be made for why Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody or Green Book could win. At one point in the season, The Favourite and A Star is Born were the frontrunners. But I’m predicting that Roma will ultimately win this, making it both the first foreign language film and the first Netflix production to take home the top prize. It’s also the film that I think should win at the end of the night.
Prediction: Roma
Winner: Green Book
Best Director:
Pawel Pawlikowski – Cold War
Spike Lee – BlacKkKlansman
Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite
Alfonso Cuarón – Roma
Adam McKay – Vice
First off, Bradley Cooper should have been nominated for his directorial debut A Star is Born. Spike Lee has been gaining some momentum, and has surprisingly never won a competitive Oscar, which could give him an advantage. But there’s little doubt in my mind that Alfonso Cuarón will win his second Best Director Oscar for his technically stunning autobiographical masterpiece, and he absolutely deserves it.
Prediction: Alfonso Cuarón
Winner: Alfonso Cuarón
Best Actor:
Christian Bale – Vice
Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born
Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate
Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen – Green Book
First off, the fact that Ethan Hawke missed out on a nomination for his career-defining performance in First Reformed is an absolute crime. My vote would personally go to Bradley Cooper, but Rami Malek is the frontrunner by a very wide margin for his admittedly solid impersonation of Freddie Mercury in an otherwise deeply flawed film.
Prediction: Rami Malek
Winner: Rami Malek
Best Actress:
Yalitza Aparicio – Roma
Glenn Close – The Wife
Olivia Colman – The Favourite
Lady Gaga – A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Olivia Colman could win this, and she would deserve it. But this is Glenn Close’s seventh nomination, and she has somewhat shockingly never won, so I think this will finally be her year. It’s also a masterful, understated performance from the veteran actress.
Prediction: Glenn Close
Winner: Olivia Colman
Best Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali – Green Book
Adam Driver – BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott – A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell – Vice
Richard E. Grant has charmed his way through awards season, and he gave a stunning performance that walked a fine line between comedy and tragedy. But Mahershala Ali has long been the favourite for his co-lead performance in Green Book, and I think he is poised to win his second Oscar for the film. I also think that Timothée Chalamet should have been nominated for Beautiful Boy, over Sam Rockwell’s comic performance in Vice.
Prediction: Mahershala Ali
Winner: Mahershala Ali
Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Adams – Vice
Marina De Tavira – Roma
Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone – The Favourite
Rachel Weisz – The Favourite
Again, this is a tight race, and I have been going back and forth between Regina King and Rachel Weisz in my predictions. But King has been dominating the awards circuit for her performance, so I’m giving her the edge here.
Prediction: Regina King
Winner: Regina King
Best Original Screenplay:
The Favourite – Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara
First Reformed – Paul Schrader
Green Book – Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
Roma – Alfonso Cuarón
Vice – Adam McKay
Look, there’s no doubt in my mind that Paul Schrader should win this for First Reformed, which is somehow the veteran screenwriter’s first nomination, and the only nod for one of the absolute best movies of last year. But this is probably down to The Favourite and Green Book, and I’m giving the former the edge for its acid-tongued dialogue.
Prediction: The Favourite
Winner: Green Book
Best Adapted Screenplay:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
BlacKkKlansman – Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me? – Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk – Barry Jenkins
A Star is Born – Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters
A compelling case can be made for why Can You Ever Forgive Me? or If Beale Streat Could Talk might be able to pull off a surprise win in this category. But I think this is Spike Lee’s to lose.
Prediction: BlacKkKlansman
Winner: BlacKkKlansman
Best Makeup & Hairstyling:
Border
Mary Queen of Scots
They transformed Christian Bale into Dick Cheney. What more can I say?
Prediction: Vice
Winner: Vice
Best Animated Feature:
Mirai
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Disney and Pixar could continue their dominance in this category with their blockbuster sequel Incredibles 2. But Spider-Verse has emerged as the favourite by a very wide margin throughout the season, and it’s one of the closest things to a consensus pick in any of the categories. It’s also an incredibly impressive and groundbreaking achievement from an artistic standpoint.
Prediction: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Winner: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Best Documentary Feature:
Hale County This Morning This Evening
Of Fathers and Sons
With the absence of the expected frontrunner Won’t You Be Neighbor?, which was left off the ballot in one of the most surprising snubs of all time, this category is down to Free Solo and RBG. While the subject of RBG is basically seen as a liberal superhero, which gives that film an advantage, Free Solo is the better movie from a technical standpoint, and has also done quite well at the box office. I’ll be happy if it wins, and I think it will, even if my vote would go to Bing Liu’s masterpiece Minding the Gap.
Prediction: Free Solo
Winner: Free Solo
Best Original Score:
Black Panther – Ludwig Göransson
BlacKkKlansman – Terrence Blanchard
If Beale Street Could Talk – Nicholas Britell
Isle of Dogs – Alexandre Desplat
Mary Poppins Returns – Marc Shaiman
This category is also surprisingly hard to predict this year, so I’m going with Nicholas Britell’s widely admired score for If Beale Street Could Talk.
Prediction: If Beale Street Could Talk
Winner: Black Panther
Best Original Song:
“All the Stars” – Black Panther
“I’ll Fight” – RBG
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” – Mary Poppins Returns
“Shallow” – A Star is Born
“When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings” – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
You can engrave the statue now, this is the biggest lock of the night. If Best Song goes to anything other than Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper’s soaring, unforgettable ballad, it will be one of the greatest upsets of all time. “Shallow” will win this hands down, as it should.
Prediction: “Shallow”
Winner: “Shallow”
Best Foreign Language Film:
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)
Yes, I’m predicting that Roma will ultimately take Best Picture at the end of the night, but there’s little doubt that it will also win here, making it the first film to do so.
Prediction: Roma
Winner: Roma
Best Costume Design:
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs – Mary Zophres
Black Panther – Ruth E. Carter
The Favourite – Sandy Powell
Mary Poppins Returns – Sandy Powell
Mary Queen of Scots – Alexandra Byrne
There is a lot of love for Ruth E. Carter’s Afrofuturistic costumes in Black Panther, and she could win, but period pieces usually win in this category, and Sandy Powell is a double nominee, so I’m thinking she will take this for The Favourite.
Prediction: The Favourite
Winner: Black Panther
Best Production Design:
Black Panther – Hannah Beachler, Jay Hart
The Favourite – Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
First Man – Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
Mary Poppins Returns – John Myhre, Gordon Sim
Roma – Eugenio Caballero, Barbara Enriquez
My reasoning for The Favourite coming out on top for costume design could easily stand here, and I would love to see Roma take this one, but I’m thinking that the Academy will want to recognize the distinctive production design of Black Panther, which is one of the most memorable aspects of the clearly well liked film.
Prediction: Black Panther
Winner: Black Panther
Best Cinematography:
Cold War – Lukasz Zal
The Favourite – Robbie Ryan
Never Look Away – Caleb Deschanel
Roma – Alfonso Cuarón
A Star is Born – Matthew Libatique
Robbie Ryan’s work on The Favourite is spectacular. The way that Matthew Libatique shot A Star is Born‘s concert sequences is thrilling. But this is Alfonso Curón’s to lose for the striking black and white compositions and breathtaking long takes that he brought to the screen in Roma. It’s worth noting that the film was originally going to be shot by his frequent collaborator, multiple Oscar winner Emmanuel Lubezki, but scheduling conflicts prompted the director to act as his own cinematographer.
Prediction: Roma
Winner: Roma
Best Film Editing:
BlacKkKlansman – Barry Alexander Brown
Bohemian Rhapsody – John Ottman
The Favourite – Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Green Book – Patrick J. Don Vito
Vice – Hank Corwin
This is another one of the tightest categories. It could easily go to Vice or BlackKkKlansman, but John Ottman is seen as salvaging Bohemian Rhapsody after director Bryan Singer was fired. Yes, some of the scenes aren’t that well assembled, but I’m thinking it will win for the flashy concert sequences alone, including the impressive recreation of Queen’s performance at Live Aid.
Prediction: Bohemian Rhapsody
Winner: Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Visual Effects:
If something else takes this, it would be First Man, for the way that it recreated the moon landing using mostly in-camera effects. But Avengers: Infinity War boasted incredibly impressive visuals, including one of the best villains of last year in Thanos, a stunning digital creation who was brought to life entirely through motion capture technology.
Prediction: Avengers: Infinity War
Winner: First Man
Best Sound Editing:
The sound categories are always a toss-up, but one of the many impressive things about Roma is the way that the film used sound to immerse us in the world of Mexico in the 1970s, which was especially apparent when seeing it in a theatre. I’m thinking it will win at least one of these awards.
Prediction: Roma
Winner: Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Sound Mixing:
The reason why I think Bohemian Rhapsody has a good shot of winning here is because the film’s sound mixing is undeniably impressive. The film does a good job blending music and dialogue, and they even mixed together elements of both Freddie Mercury and Rami Malek’s voices for the song performances.
Prediction: Bohemian Rhapsody
Winner: Bohemian Rhapsody
Best Animated Short:
Animal Behaviour
Bao
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekend
I’m already betting against Pixar in the feature category, but I’m not going to do that here with Bao. It will also be incredibly gratifying to see Toronto’s own Domee Shi take the stage to accept the award for this unique short film.
Prediction: Bao
Winner: Bao
Best Live Action Short:
Detainment
Fauve
Marguerite
Mother
Skin
Prediction: Skin
Winner: Skin
Best Documentary (Short Subject):
Black Sheep
End Game
Lifeboat
A Night at the Garden
Period. End of Sentence.
Prediction: Period. End of Sentence.
Winner: Period. End of Sentence.
The Joy of Movies 